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The assumption that Boris Johnson wants to bypass parliament in order to leave the EU in brutal mode on October 31 is probably correct, even if he claims the opposite. From a democratic point of view, this is alarming.
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But has Boris Johnson overturned parliament? Yes, he tries. But it is already the second disempowerment. The first was done by the House of Commons itself. In the turbulent months in which it could not agree on a Brexit deal – and in which the world witnessed how an elected parliament dismantled itself.
Theresa May put her deal with the EU to a vote three times, three times it was rejected. Brexit was postponed twice to give the House of Commons more time. That didn’t do anything. The MPs voted twice on alternatives to the May Plan, here too: not a single initiative found support. The only thing that was agreed was that there should never be a no-deal Brexit – a decision that was not binding on the government.
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Both the Tory and Labor MPs have paved the way for Boris Johnson’s – yes, you have to put it that way – unscrupulous move through their stance of refusal. They have allowed the interests, animosities and perhaps also naivety of individuals and their parties to harm the country and those who once elected them. They had enough time to prevent that. It might be too late now.
Scotland is discussing a second referendum on independence. The reunification of Ireland is also under discussion. Wales turns away from Boris Johnson’s Brexit policy. Is Britain falling apart?
With his inaugural trip to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, Boris Johnson wanted to focus on one of his central goals as British Prime Minister: to unite a desperately divided country. At the same time, he wanted to advertise his core topic: Brexit according to his ideas. His tour was not a success. There was massive criticism of Johnson’s Brexit policy in all parts of the country. Even leaving the UK was a topic on several occasions. Will the UK fall apart on Brexit?
"No ifs and buts" Great Britain will leave the EU on October 31st. The British Prime Minister repeats this threat to the EU in a mantra-like manner. There can only be a deal for Johnson if the EU agrees to renegotiate the exit agreement and, above all, to remove the backstop rule from the agreement. This regulation is intended to prevent a hard border between the Republic of Ireland, which remains in the EU, and Northern Ireland, which is leaving as part of the United Kingdom, after a successful Brexit.
The EU rejects this rigorously and currently sees no basis for further Brexit talks with Great Britain. Both sides are not giving in and so a no-deal Brexit is getting closer and closer. Johnson’s uncompromising stance towards the EU is not only controversial within his own party. There is no majority in the British Parliament for a Brexit without an exit agreement. This was made clear by several votes under his predecessor Theresa May.
Another – and more dangerous – chasm is opening within the UK. The United Kingdom consists of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Only in England, the most populous and powerful part of Great Britain, can Johnson still be sure of approval for his radical Brexit course. Here, many Brexiteers continue to believe that the benefits of leaving the EU outweigh this. Possible disadvantages for other parts of the kingdom have not changed this attitude.123helpme.me
In Wales, which voted 52.5 percent to leave the 2016 Brexit referendum, the mood has turned. There were violent protests from farmers during Johnson’s visit. The south-western part of the UK is very dependent on EU funding. According to experts, around 80 percent of the farmers’ income there came from pots of the European Union. More than 50,000 people are employed in agriculture in Wales. During his visit, Johnson was unable to explain in detail how farmers in Wales should proceed in the event of a no-deal Brexit. He spoke only vaguely of that "historic opportunity to introduce new measures to support agriculture".
Boris Johnson on his first visit to Wales: The visit to a chicken farm did not give him any pluses either. (Source: Adrian Dennis / Reuters)
The head of government of Wales, Mark Drakeford (Labor Party), sharply criticized the Prime Minister for this. "No recognition that livelihoods are in danger. No serious answers. No plan for the farmers of Wales"he wrote on Twitter.
Johnson had already come under heavy criticism on his first visit to Scotland: Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon stated that Johnson would turn the country into one with his Brexit course "catastrophe" drive. She also complained that Johnson could not explain to her how he wanted to reach a new deal with the EU. She suspected that Johnson was publicly declaring that he wanted a deal with the EU, but that his real goal was a no-deal Brexit. "I think this is extremely dangerous for Scotland and for the whole of the UK"said the Scottish head of government.
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It was also Sturgeon who warned Johnson shortly after his election: "The right of the Scots to determine their own future is a fundamental democratic principle that must be respected." An only undisguised threat of a second independence referendum by the Scots. In the first, the Scots decided to remain in the UK in 2014 with a majority of 55 to 45 percent. However, in the 2016 Brexit referendum, 62 percent of Scots voted to remain in the EU. Brexit hardliner Johnson could now ensure that Scotland votes in a second referendum to leave the kingdom.
Northern Ireland has become the focus of the Brexit conflict. Johnson rejects the backstop that May worked out with the EU. Here, too, Johnson cannot offer a realistic alternative. With Brexit, a new external EU border will be created between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. The EU absolutely wants to prevent border controls – otherwise there is fear of a resurgence of violence in the former civil war region.
Johnson, however, sees the guarantee clause "Instrument of incarceration"because it would keep the whole of Great Britain in the customs union and Northern Ireland in parts of the single market if no agreement is reached in the outstanding negotiations on future EU-Great Britain relations.
Fears of the effects of a no-deal Brexit put an issue on the agenda that seemed impossible two weeks ago: the reunification of Ireland.
Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said in the newspaper "Irish Independent" in connection with the current Brexit chaos: "People who could be described as moderate nationalists or moderate Catholics, more or less satisfied with the status quo, will move more towards a unified Ireland." But also "liberal protestants" in Northern Ireland there was an increasing question "where they feel more at home", added Varadkar. This home is either in one "nationalist Britain"discussing issues such as the reintroduction of the death penalty, or in a "common European homeland" and as "Part of Ireland"said the Irish Prime Minister.
Northern Irish nationalists also brought the reunification of British Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland into play in view of the stalled Brexit negotiations. The head of the Northern Irish party Sinn Fein, Mary Lou McDonald, said Johnson was not their prime minister. After the "hurrapatriotic and stubborn" Johnson was exactly the time to discuss Irish reunification, said the leader of the largest nationalist party in Northern Ireland. "The way back to the EU is very clear for the north, Irish reunification is the way back to the EU."
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson: His relentless Brexit course could seriously jeopardize Britain’s unity. (Source: Rui Vieira / Reuters)
A no deal would be one "catastrophe" for business, society and the peace process, said McDonald. Protesters also made it clear in Belfast: "We’re not going to let that happen." In the 2016 Brexit vote, 56 percent of Northern Irish voted in favor of remaining in the EU.
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Many of the exit scenarios are still mind games. Resistance to Johnson’s policies is only just beginning to form in Wales. When and whether a new independence referendum could be held in Scotland is currently highly controversial. A reunification of Ireland would also take a long time.
But Johnson should be warned: the discussions show how divided the UK is now, and how dramatically Johnson has failed in his attempt to unite the British. Indeed, if Johnson continues to ruthlessly pursue his political agenda, there is a real possibility that he will be the last Prime Minister of the UK in its current form.
Sources used: With material from the news agencies dpa and Reuters own research The Spectator: Could Boris Johnson be the last Prime Minister of the UK? (Eng.) The Guardian: Nicola Sturgeon calls for new Scottish independence vote (Eng.) CNN: Boris Johnson could be the last prime minister of the United Kingdom (Eng.) more sources show less sources
Donald Trump’s security advisor has sided with the British Prime Minister: In the event of a Brexit without a deal, the US would support the British.
The US government is in favor of Great Britain leaving the EU without an agreement: President Donald Trump’s security advisor, John Bolton, has clearly backed British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit course. "If there was a no-deal Brexit, it would be a decision by the UK government. We would support this with enthusiasm"said Bolton to him "Guardian" according to a visit to London. Bolton had previously met with Johnson and other government officials.
Trump was on the UK’s successful exit from the EU on October 31, Bolton told journalists on Monday. "We are with you"he added. The US also relied on trade agreements with Great Britain. According to the British media, Bolton held out the prospect of fragmented trade agreements for individual sectors of the economy, difficult areas could initially be excluded. The goal is a comprehensive trade agreement that includes all goods and services, Bolton said "Guardian"-Information. "But to do that one could go sector by sector."
Johnson plans to lead Britain out of the European Union on October 31 – "come what may". He threatens to exit without an agreement if Brussels does not accept his demand for changes to the exit agreement negotiated with his predecessor Theresa May. The EU strictly rejects this. This increases the risk of a no-deal Brexit, which would damage the economy and many other areas of life.
Whether Johnson can assert himself against the will of Parliament in London could be decided in court. A corresponding petition from around 70 pro-European parliamentarians is to be heard in a first hearing on September 6th in a court in Edinburgh. They want to have a court established that a government-imposed pause for parliament shortly before leaving the EU "illegal and unconstitutional" would. Johnson had expressly not ruled out using the so-called prorogation if necessary, in which Parliament would be unable to act for weeks in order to enforce a Brexit without an agreement against the will of the MPs.
Currently in the summer recess, parliament will meet again in the first week of September. The first violent confrontation between the government and the no-deal opponents in the lower house is expected on September 9th. It is considered likely that MPs will then try to temporarily seize control of the parliamentary calendar in order to prevent a no-deal Brexit by law.
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Downing Street, the seat of government, had emphasized on Monday that the Prime Minister was very much interested in an exit agreement with the EU. He will telephone leading politicians from the EU in the coming days.
Sources used: dpa news agency
Boris Johnson tirelessly threatens a no-deal Brexit. But it won’t be easy.